The Intergenerational Transmission of Health Disadvantage: Can Education Disrupt It?

In low-income countries, intergenerational processes can culminate in the replication of extreme forms of health disadvantage between mothers and adult daughters, including experiencing a young child's death. The preventable nature of most child deaths raises questions of whether social resources can protect women from enduring this adversity like their mothers. This study examined whether education-widely touted as a vehicle for social mobility in resource-poor countries-disrupts the intergenerational cycle of maternal bereavement. We estimated multilevel discrete-time survival models of women's hazard of child loss using Demographic and Health Survey Program data (N = 195,744 women in 345 subnational regions in 32 African countries). Women's educational attainment minimizes the salience of their mothers' bereavement history for their own probability of child loss; however, mothers' background becomes irrelevant only among women with ≥10 years of schooling. Education's neutralizing influence is most prominent in the highest mortality-burdened communities.

The Relationships between Drought Exposure, Fertility Preferences, and Contraceptive Behaviors: A Multicountry Study.

The interplay between population dynamics and the environment has long interested demographers. Although studies have explored how climate patterns affect macrolevel population processes, such as mortality and migration, little is known about their impact on individual-level demographic behaviors. This study fills this research gap by examining the linkages between exposure to drought and women's fertility preferences and contraceptive behaviors in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyze data from the Demographic and Health Surveys Program, focusing on 17 countries in East, Southern, and West Africa. We investigate whether women's recent exposure to drought episodes in their community affects their fertility preferences and modern contraceptive use. Generally, the findings show that drought is relevant to understanding women's fertility preferences and behaviors in the vast majority of countries; however, drought exposure has variable impacts. Moreover, whereas in some countries, drought exposure encourages contraceptive behaviors that align with women's preferences, in select countries it is associated with behavior that is misaligned with women's stated preferences. Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of examining climate events as complex forces that have localized meanings for demographic outcomes.

Lost support, lost skills: Children's cognitive outcomes following grandparental death.

OBJECTIVE: This study examines the implications of grandparental death for cognitive skills in middle childhood. METHOD: This study uses data from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 2479) to estimate ordinary least squares regression models of the associations between grandparental death and subsequent cognitive skills among children in middle childhood. RESULTS: Experiencing a grandparental death between ages 5 and 9 is associated with boys' lower reading, verbal, and math scores at age 9, with associations most notable for Black and Hispanic boys; grandparental death before age 5 has minimal influence on boys' cognitive skills at age 9. There is little indication that grandparental death adversely affects girls' cognitive skills. CONCLUSION: The numerous and persistent implications of grandparental death for boys' cognitive skills merit greater recognition of grandparental death as a source of family instability, stress, and ultimately inequality in child development.

Is the mortality-fertility nexus gendered? A research note on sex differences in the impact of sibling mortality on fertility preferences.

Research guided by demographic transition theory has shown that exposure to mortality influences women's fertility preferences and behaviours. Despite the myriad contexts, methodological approaches, and linkages featured in past studies, they have shared a focus on women, leaving questions on the gendered salience of mortality exposures for adults' fertility-related outcomes unanswered. In this research note, we analyse data from three African countries with distinct fertility profiles (Nigeria, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) to examine associations between sibling mortality exposure and ideal family size among women, men, and couples. We also investigate the stability of these associations over time. The associations between adults' sibling mortality exposure and their own and their spouses' ideal family sizes vary across countries. However, the gendered nature of the results in every country and evidence of cross-spousal effects uniformly demonstrate the need to incorporate sex differences into the study of the mortality-fertility link.

Women's Life Experiences and Shifting Reports of Pregnancy Planning.

BACKGROUND: Unplanned pregnancy is associated with adverse consequences for women. Yet, these associations are typically based on women's reports of pregnancy planning provided post birth. Therefore, women's recollection of their pregnancy planning may be influenced by their adverse life circumstances following the pregnancy, artificially driving these associations. METHODS: To understand how post-birth experiences pattern women's recall of their pregnancy planning, we conducted 17 in-depth interviews with young women (24-34 years old) enrolled in a longitudinal study in southern Malawi. Respondents who were pregnant at the time of data collection in 2015 answered close-ended questions about the planning of their pregnancy. During in-depth interviews three years later, women discussed their life experiences since the pregnancy and were re-asked a subset of the same questions about the planning of the 2015 pregnancy. We thematically coded respondents' narratives about their relationships, parenting, and economic situations in the three years following their pregnancy and mapped these onto changes in women's pre- and post-birth reports of their pregnancy planning. RESULTS: More than one-half of respondents recalled their pregnancy planning differently than they did pre-birth-some as more planned, others as less planned. The presence and direction of women's changing reports were patterned by the quality of their relationship with the child's father, the father's involvement as a partner and parent, and their economic situation. CONCLUSIONS: Women's life experiences following a birth correspond with changes in their pregnancy planning reports, emphasizing the limitations of using retrospective measures to study the consequences of unplanned fertility.

Mourning in a Pandemic: The Differential Impact of COVID-19 Widowhood on Mental Health.

OBJECTIVES: The death of a spouse is an established predictor of mental health decline that foreshadows worsening physical health and elevated mortality. The millions widowed by COVID-19 worldwide may experience even worse health outcomes than comparable pre-pandemic widows given the particularities of dying, mourning, and grieving during a pandemic defined by protracted social isolation, economic precarity, and general uncertainty. If COVID-19 pandemic bereavement is more strongly associated with mental health challenges than pre-pandemic bereavement, the large new cohort of COVID-19 widow(er)s may be at substantial risk of downstream health problems long after the pandemic abates. METHODS: We pooled population-based Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe data from 27 countries for two distinct periods: (1) pre-pandemic (Wave 8, fielded October 2019-March 2020; N = 46,266) and (2) early pandemic (COVID Supplement, fielded June-August 2020; N = 55,796). The analysis used a difference-in-difference design to assess whether a spouse dying from COVID-19 presents unique mental health risks (self-reported depression, loneliness, and trouble sleeping), compared with pre-pandemic recent spousal deaths. RESULTS: We find strong associations between recent spousal death and poor mental health before and during the pandemic. However, our difference-in-difference estimates indicate those whose spouses died of COVID-19 have higher risks of self-reported depression and loneliness, but not trouble sleeping, than expected based on pre-pandemic associations. DISCUSSION: These results highlight that the millions of COVID-19 widow(er)s face extreme mental health risks, eclipsing those experienced by surviving spouses pre-pandemic, furthering concerns about the pandemic's lasting impacts on health.

Life After Loss: A Prospective Analysis of Mortality Exposure and Unintended Fertility.

The relationship between mortality and fertility is a key component of demographic transition theory, placing it at the center of extensive inquiry. Among other linkages, mortality in women's communities and social networks influences their subsequent fertility. Existing demographic research assumes this is principally due to volitional mechanisms, implying that exposure to mortality consolidates women's desire to become pregnant, leading to intended fertility. Yet, insights from other disciplines suggest that mortality exposure could also increase women's unintended fertility through psychological, relational, and behavioral mechanisms. This study examines the relationships between network mortality exposure and women's hazard of pregnancy, and of unintended pregnancy specifically. We analyze two years (2009-2011) of closely spaced panel data on young Malawian women (N=1,272) enrolled in the Tsogolo la Thanzi study. Our data include information on funeral attendance and fertility desires measured weeks before conception, which is confirmed through frequent pregnancy testing. Hazard models show that the number of funerals women attend corresponds with a higher hazard of pregnancy and of unintended pregnancy specifically. These findings make clear that mortality exposure can influence fertility not by shaping women's desires but by disrupting the realization of those desires.

Bereavement From COVID-19, Gender, and Reports of Depression Among Older Adults in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has left older adults around the world bereaved by the sudden death of relatives and friends. We examine if COVID-19 bereavement corresponds with older adults' reporting depression in 27 countries and test for variations by gender and country context. METHOD: We analyze the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe COVID-19 data collected between June and August 2020 from 51,383 older adults (age 50-104) living in 27 countries, of whom 1,363 reported the death of a relative or friend from COVID-19. We estimate pooled multilevel logit regression models to examine if COVID-19 bereavement is associated with self-reported depression and worsening depression, and we test whether national COVID-19 mortality rates moderate these associations. RESULTS: COVID-19 bereavement is associated with significantly higher probabilities of both reporting depression and reporting worsened depression among older adults. Net of one's own personal loss, living in a country with the highest COVID-19 mortality rate is associated with women's reports of worsened depression but not men's. However, the country's COVID-19 mortality rate does not moderate associations between COVID-19 bereavement and depression. DISCUSSION: COVID-19 deaths have lingering mental health implications for surviving older adults. Even as the collective toll of the crisis is apparent, bereaved older adults are in particular need of mental health support.

Global burden of maternal bereavement: indicators of the cumulative prevalence of child loss.

BACKGROUND: We provide country-level estimates of the cumulative prevalence of mothers bereaved by a child's death in 170 countries and territories. METHODS: We generate indicators of the cumulative prevalence of mothers who have had an infant, under-five-year-old or any-age child ever die by using publicly available survey data in 89 countries and an indirect approach that combines formal kinship models and life-table methods in an additional 81 countries. We label these measures the maternal cumulative prevalence of infant mortality (mIM), under-five mortality (mU5M) and offspring mortality (mOM) and generate prevalence estimates for 20-44-year-old and 45-49-year-old mothers. RESULTS: In several Asian and European countries, the mIM and mU5M are below 10 per 1000 mothers yet exceed 200 per 1000 mothers in several Middle Eastern and African countries. Global inequality in mothers' experience of child loss is enormous: mothers in high-mortality-burden African countries are more than 100 times more likely to have had a child die than mothers in low-mortality-burden Asian and European countries. In more than 20 African countries, the mOM exceeds 500 per 1000 mothers, meaning that it is typical for a surviving 45-49-year-old mother to be bereaved. DISCUSSION: The study reveals enormous global disparities in mothers' experience of child loss and identifies a need for more research on the downstream mental and physical health risks associated with parental bereavement.

Economic Inequality and Divergence in Family Formation in sub-Saharan Africa.

Economic inequality has been rising in many sub-Saharan African countries alongside rapid changes to union and family formation. In high-income countries marked by rising inequality, union and family formation practices have diverged across socioeconomic statuses, with intergenerational social and health consequences for the disadvantaged. In this study, we address whether there is also evidence of demographic divergence in low-income settings. Specifically, we model the age at first marriage and first birth by socioeconomic status groups for women born between 1960-1989 using Demographic and Health Survey data from twelve sub-Saharan African countries where economic inequality levels are relatively high or rising. We argue that economic and socio-cultural factors may both serve to increasingly delay marriage and childbearing for the elite as compared to others in the context of rising inequality. We find emerging social stratification in marriage and childbearing, and demonstrate that this demographic divergence is driven by the elites who are increasingly marrying and having children at later ages, with near stagnation in the age at first marriage and birth among the remaining majority. We urge further research at the intersection of socioeconomic and demographic inequality to inform necessary policy levers and curtail negative social and health consequences.

Women's Health Decline Following (Some) Unintended Births: A Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND: As many as one-in-three unintended births occur in Africa. These births have the potential to adversely impact women's health, but data and design limitations have complicated efforts to understand their consequences. Moreover, there is growing evidence that women often feel happy about an unintended pregnancy and this heterogeneity may be important for identifying the births that are - and those that are not - harmful to women's health. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether having an unintended birth precipitates health declines for young women in a high-fertility, high-morbidity context, and whether women's emotional reaction to the pregnancy foreshadows the consequences of the resulting birth. METHODS: We use closely spaced panel data from 896 young women in Malawi that include prospective measures of fertility timing desires captured only months before conception and a contemporaneous measure of emotional reaction to the pregnancy. We run lagged dependent variable regression models of self-rated health that account for health and sociodemographic conditions prior to pregnancy and compare women with unintended births to women with intended births and to an alternative comparison group: women who avoid an unintended birth. We then disaggregate unintended births by women's emotional reaction after learning of the pregnancy. RESULTS: Women who had an unintended birth but initially had a positive reaction to the pregnancy did not experience a decline in health after birth. Women who had a more negative reaction, however, experienced marked reductions in self-rated health, even years after the birth. CONTRIBUTION: Our findings highlight meaningful heterogeneity in the consequences of unintended fertility for women's health and offer insights into the unintended births that put women at greatest risk of health decline.

Sibling mortality burden in low-income countries: A descriptive analysis of sibling death in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

In high-income countries, emerging research suggests sibling bereavement can have significant health and life course consequences for young people. Yet, we know far less about its burden in lower-income countries. Due to higher fertility and mortality in lower-income countries, the level, timing, intensity, and circumstances surrounding sibling mortality are likely to follow patterns distinct from those in higher-income settings. Thus, in this study, we offer a descriptive overview of sibling death in 43 countries across sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Specifically, we analyze Demographic and Health Survey data from nationally representative samples of 352,930 15- to 34-year-old women, born between 1985 and 2003, to document experiences of sibling death before age 25. On average, roughly one-third of individuals report a deceased sibling in these countries; estimates reach 40-50% of respondents in multiple African countries, particularly those that have experienced conflict and war. Although some sibling deaths occurred before the focal respondent was born, most bereaved individuals recalled a death during their lifetime-often in late childhood/early adolescence. High proportions of bereaved respondents report multiple sibling deaths, highlighting the clustering of deaths within families. Even so, bereaved individuals tend to come from large families and thus frequently have a comparable number of surviving siblings as people who never experienced a sibling die. Together, the results offer a window into global inequality in childhood experiences, and they attest to the need for research that explores the implications of sibling mortality for young people in world regions where the experience is concentrated.

Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a large increase in mortality in the United States and around the world, leaving many grieving the sudden loss of family members. We created an indicator-the COVID-19 bereavement multiplier-that estimates the average number of individuals who will experience the death of a close relative (defined as a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child) for each COVID-19 death. Using demographic microsimulation-based estimates of kinship networks in the United States, the clear age gradient in COVID-19 mortality seen across contexts, and several hypothetical infection prevalence scenarios, we estimate COVID-19 bereavement multipliers for White and Black individuals in the United States. Our analysis shows that for every COVID-19 death, approximately nine surviving Americans will lose a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child. These estimates imply, for example, that if 190,000 Americans die from COVID-19, as some models project, then ∼1.7 million will experience the death of a close relative. We demonstrate that our estimates of the bereavement multiplier are stable across epidemiological realities, including infection scenarios, total number of deaths, and the distribution of deaths, which means researchers can estimate the bereavement burden over the course of the epidemic in lockstep with rising death tolls. In addition, we provide estimates of bereavement multipliers by age group, types of kin loss, and race to illuminate prospective disparities. The bereavement multiplier is a useful indicator for tracking COVID-19's multiplicative impact as it reverberates across American families and can be tailored to other causes of death.

Does Parents' Union Instability Disrupt Intergenerational Advantage? An Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa.

The long arm of childhood, with its wide-ranging influence on individuals' life chances, highlights the importance of understanding the determinants of health in early life. Research has established that parents' education is a major determinant of childhood health, but children across the globe increasingly experience their parents' divorce and subsequent remarriage, raising questions of whether union instability alters these intergenerational processes. Does divorce and remarriage interfere with parents' education benefiting their young children's health? I explore this question in sub-Saharan Africa, a world region where parents' education plays a major role in protecting children against severe health risks, and where young children commonly experience parental divorce and remarriage. Moreover, sub-Saharan Africa features distinct family lineage systems, affording an opportunity to explore this question in both majority matrilineal and patrilineal contexts. Analyses of Demographic and Health Survey data on 271,292 children in 30 sub-Saharan African countries offer no evidence that the high levels of union instability in the region will weaken the health benefits of parents' education for future generations. Following divorce, children benefit from their biological parents' education to the same degree as children with married parents-a finding that is consistent across lineage contexts. Moreover, stepfathers' education corresponds with pronounced health benefits for their coresident stepchildren, particularly in patrilineal regions where these children benefit less dramatically from their mothers' education. Together, the study results offer a renewed sense of the importance of parents'-including stepfathers'-education for early childhood health across diverse family structures.

Maternal cumulative prevalence measures of child mortality show heavy burden in sub-Saharan Africa.

We advance a set of population-level indicators that quantify the prevalence of mothers who have ever experienced an infant, under 5-y-old child, or any-age child die. The maternal cumulative prevalence of infant mortality (mIM), the maternal cumulative prevalence of under 5 mortality (mU5M), and the maternal cumulative prevalence of offspring mortality (mOM) bring theoretical and practical value to a variety of disciplines. Here we introduce maternal cumulative prevalence measures of mortality for multiple age groups of mothers in 20 sub-Saharan African countries with Demographic and Health Surveys data spanning more than two decades. The exercise demonstrates the persistently high prevalence of African mothers who have ever experienced a child die. In some African countries, more than one-half of 45- to 49-y-old mothers have experienced the death of a child under age 5, and nearly two-thirds have experienced the death of any child, irrespective of age. Fewer young mothers have experienced a child die, yet in many countries, up to one-third have. Our results show that the mIM and mU5M can follow distinct trajectories from the infant mortality rate (IMR) and under 5 mortality rate (U5MR), offering an experiential view of mortality decline that annualized measures conceal. These measures can be adapted to quantify the prevalence of recurrent offspring mortality (mROM) and calculated for subgroups to identify within-country inequality in the mortality burden. These indicators can be used to improve current understandings of mortality change, bereavement as a public health threat, and population dynamics.

The Marital Implications of Bereavement: Child Death and Intimate Partner Violence in West and Central Africa.

In high-mortality contexts, research examining the effects of child mortality has focused almost exclusively on couples' fertility responses while overlooking other potential family consequences. Using nationally representative survey data from 13 West and Central African countries, we estimate multilevel discrete-time hazard models to determine how women's risk of intimate partner violence (IPV) varies with the death of children. We assess heterogeneity in this association across two surrounding circumstances: children's age at death and regional prevalence of child bereavement. Findings indicate that the risk of IPV initiation rises with the death of children under age 5-for whom women are most intensely responsible-but not with the death of older children. The effect of young child bereavement is most pronounced in regions where it is least prevalent among mothers-a finding not explained by concomitant regional variation in gender inequality, family norms, and infrastructural development. These findings highlight the importance of child mortality for family outcomes beyond fertility in the African context and demonstrate the prominent role of the broader mortality context in shaping these implications.

Unrealized Educational Expectations and Mental Health: Evidence from a Low-Income Country.

The rapid expansion of schooling across low-income countries, combined with intensive governmental and nongovernmental efforts to promote education, has encouraged youth in these contexts to form exceptionally high educational expectations, despite immense structural barriers to achieving them. Consequently, many young people's educational expectations go unmet, driving concerns over the possible unintended consequences, including their elevated risk of mental health problems. At the same time, role transitions (e.g., marriage, parenthood) remain important elements of the transition to adulthood in many low-income countries, and may be a source of resilience-allowing youth to shift their identity away from education towards a new role. In this study, we explore the mental health implications of young women's unmet educational expectations, and the possible buffering impact of motherhood, in a low-income community in Malawi, in southeast Africa. Analyses of six years of longitudinal data show that young women's unmet expectations to continue school are associated with multiple indicators of mental health disadvantage across two points in time. In the short term, however, this is only true of young women who did not enter motherhood in the midst of their educational plans going unrealized: young women who became mothers-and thus achieved a key element of the transition to adulthood in this setting-experience fewer mental health disadvantages. The findings demonstrate the potential mental health consequences of young adults' expectations exceeding their outcomes while also highlighting a source of resilience.

Offspring education and parental mortality: Evidence from South Asia.

Decades of research show that education not only confers individual health benefits, but it also spills over to advantage subsequent generations. More recently, research has confirmed that the intergenerational health benefits of education can also flow upward: aging adults with more highly educated children experience better health and higher survival. Research has documented this finding in high-income settings, and also in select low- and middle-income contexts, raising questions about how having an adult child who attended relatively low levels of education can benefit aging parents' well-being. In this study, we use multilevel, long-term panel data on a cohort of older adults from the Chitwan Valley Family Study in rural Nepal to establish whether the association between offspring education and parents' survival is observable in this extremely poor, agrarian context. Extending past studies, we then leverage additional data on older adults to examine the association between offspring education and two theorized mechanisms: older adults' better health behaviors and their greater support in later life.

Birth Planning and Women's and Men's Health in Malawi.

Despite the frequency with which it occurs, we know little about unintended fertility in sub-Saharan Africa and even less about its implications for the health of the women and men who experience it. We use longitudinal data from southern Malawi to explore how young adults report on the planning of their births and to identify changes in their self-rated health and subjective well-being associated with having more- or less-planned births. Our data feature a comprehensive scale of pregnancy planning, the London Measure of Unplanned Pregnancy (LMUP), that extends beyond the conventional focus on timing-based pregnancy intentions to incorporate information about contraception, desires, intentions, partner discussion, and preconception preparations. Women and men have similar bimodal distributions on the LMUP, with the majority of births clearly unplanned or planned but a sizeable minority that falls in the middle. Change score models demonstrate that, for women, an unplanned birth is associated with a decline in self-rated health. In contrast, men whose births were ambivalently-planned experience a decline in subjective well-being. Our findings highlight the value of considering the full spectrum of birth planning and demonstrate the health consequences of unplanned fertility for both women and men in this sub-Saharan context.